How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Traders currently price "5.0%" at 10% for "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". Full distribution: 5.0% 10%, 5.5% 8%, 6.0% 7%, 7.0% 7%. The market has traded $481K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent July 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, with the labor force participation rate declining amid modest job gains and stable claims. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent, prioritizing elevated inflation over further labor market support given readings near estimates of maximum employment. Trader consensus on the 2026 peak therefore reflects resilience in hiring alongside downside risks from slower growth, potential policy restraint, and the September jobs report plus upcoming FOMC deliberations that could shift implied probabilities if data soften.

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