How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Traders currently price "4.0%" at 100% for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Full distribution: 4.0% 100%, 3.9% 12%, 3.6% 6%, 3.0% 6%. The market has traded $225K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.67-4.68 percent as of mid-August 2026, reflects market-implied odds shaped by sticky core inflation readings and the Federal Reserve’s pause at the 3.50-3.75 percent federal funds target under Chair Kevin Warsh. Recent tame July CPI data provided modest relief but failed to shift expectations for additional hikes this year, as fed funds futures price in a higher terminal rate near 4 percent. Persistent above-target inflation, resilient labor market conditions, and fiscal supply pressures continue to anchor longer-term yields, limiting the scope for a sustained drop below 4.0 percent before 2027. Traders will monitor the next FOMC meeting, upcoming PCE releases, and any revisions to the Fed’s dot plot for signals on the policy path.

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