How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Traders currently price "0" at 59% for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.5 points. Full distribution: 0 59%, 1 20%, 2 4%, 5+ 1%. The market has traded $1.2M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2027. Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, reflecting the low global frequency of such events—typically fewer than one per year on average based on Smithsonian and USGS records—and the absence of any confirmed large explosive activity through mid-August. Ongoing monitoring shows mostly effusive or low-VEI unrest at volcanoes like Kīlauea, with no model consensus or seismic indicators pointing to imminent Plinian-scale events. This aligns with the stable historical rate of significant eruptions over recent decades and the short remaining timeframe for escalation before year-end. New weekly volcanic activity reports or USGS alerts could shift odds if unrest intensifies at high-risk systems.

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