How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
- <22
- 28%
- +1.5
- 22–23
- 28%
- −2.0
- 24–25
- 26%
- −2.0
- 26–27
- 15%
- −2.0
- 30–31
- 4%
- —
- 28–29
- 1%
- —
- 32+
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "<22" at 28% for "How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: <22 28%, 22–23 28%, 24–25 26%, 26–27 15%. The market has traded $687K in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24 ahead of November 2026 contests for 36 seats split evenly between the parties. Eighteen Republican-held seats and eighteen Democratic-held seats are on the ballot, with at least eighteen open due to term limits and retirements. Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan ratings show most races as solid or likely for the defending party, but five toss-ups and several leans create uncertainty, particularly in states such as Michigan, Kansas, and New Hampshire. Midterm-year turnout patterns and candidate recruitment in open races remain the main variables that could shift the final count by a few seats in either direction, keeping trader probabilities concentrated across the 22–25 range.
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