How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Traders currently price "5-6" at 58% for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: 5-6 58%, <5 33%, 7-8 8%, 9-10 3%. The market has traded $492K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two flights reaching space so far in 2026—Flight 12 on May 22 introducing the V3 vehicle with Raptor 3 engines and Flight 13 on July 24 deploying Starlink V3 simulators—following extended ground testing and a new launch pad. These recent transatmospheric successes have strengthened trader confidence in a modest ramp-up, driving the 58% implied probability on 5-6 total launches for the year amid ongoing FAA licensing timelines and vehicle iteration. Flight 14, targeted for August with the first orbital attempt and potential ship catch, represents the key near-term catalyst, though achieving higher cadence will depend on rapid reusability milestones and regulatory approvals rather than the aggressive weekly targets once envisioned. Market odds reflect realistic constraints on scaling test flights through year-end.

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