How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Traders currently price "1250+" at 86% for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?". Full distribution: 1250+ 86%, 1150–1199 7%, 1200–1249 7%, 1100–1149 4%. The market has traded $82K in total volume and resolves Jan 10, 2027. Elevated preliminary tornado counts exceeding 1,100 by mid-August 2026, well ahead of historical seasonal pacing, are the main driver positioning the 1250+ outcome at 85.5% implied probability. U.S. annual averages range from 1,200 to 1,400 since 2010, with peaks often in spring and secondary activity through summer and fall; above-average reports this year, including surges in states like Illinois, reflect favorable atmospheric conditions such as enhanced moisture and shear. Official NOAA and NCEI tracking shows continued preliminary reports into August, supporting trader consensus that final verified totals will likely surpass 1,250 despite typical undercount adjustments and late-season variability.

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