Insurrection Act invoked by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 18% for "Insurrection Act invoked by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 18%, September 30 4%, July 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in 2025 and early 2026 to support federal immigration enforcement amid protests against ICE operations, including after a January 2026 incident in Minnesota. No president has actually invoked the law since 1992, and prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under related statutes faced court limits. Traders are watching how ongoing enforcement actions, state resistance, and potential unrest could trigger deployment authority. The approach of the November 2026 midterm elections adds another variable, as does a reform bill (S.2070) introduced in 2025 that remains pending in Congress. Any invocation would likely face immediate legal challenges testing the statute’s vague standards for insurrection or rebellion.

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