Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 51% for "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 51%, October 31 38%, September 30 18%, August 31 7%. The market has traded $2.0M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Iran maintains efforts to formalize control over Strait of Hormuz transit through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, established in May 2026 to issue permits and collect fees following the February 2026 closure amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. As of early August 2026, Iranian officials have signaled they will not revert to pre-conflict free passage, viewing management rights as a core interest despite U.S. sanctions on the authority and rejection of compulsory tolls. Recent proposals for voluntary navigation fees have drawn European scrutiny, while broader shipping restrictions and threats of selective closures continue to shape trader assessments of whether formal Iranian charges will take effect.

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