JD Vance out as VP by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 6% for "JD Vance out as VP by...?". Full distribution: December 31 6%, June 15 0%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $239K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Vice President JD Vance remains in office with no confirmed indications of imminent departure as of mid-August 2026. The constitutional process for removing a sitting vice president requires either resignation or congressional impeachment and conviction, both of which face high procedural and political barriers absent major scandals or direct conflicts with the president. Recent staff changes, including the June 2026 personal resignation of Vance’s chief of staff, reflect normal administration turnover rather than broader instability. Speculation around Vance’s isolation or future ambitions has surfaced in reporting but lacks corroboration from official statements or actions. Trader consensus assigns low probability to an exit by year-end, consistent with historical patterns where vice presidents typically serve full terms unless health, legal, or explicit presidential pressure intervenes.

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