Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 82% for "Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?". The market has traded $53K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **The market-implied odds of 81.4% on “No” for a conviction before 2027 reflect the slow pace of the Canadian criminal justice system on sexual assault cases.** Justin Aguiar (also known as Justin Marc), a Toronto-based content creator and dating coach, was arrested in November 2025 and charged with one count tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; additional women have since come forward publicly. Typical timelines for preliminary hearings, disclosure, and trials in Ontario frequently extend well beyond a year, especially with potential multiple complainants and defense motions. No trial date or plea resolution has been reported as of mid-2026, making a verdict by year-end statistically unlikely. Key near-term catalysts include any scheduled court appearances or further charges that could shift momentum.

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