Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Traders currently price "SpaceX" at 81% for "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 6.0 points. Full distribution: SpaceX 81%, xAI 26%, Anthropic 16%, OpenAI 1%. The market has traded $5.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest on record, anchors trader consensus around its dominance in the 2026 IPO market-cap ranking. The offering raised roughly $75 billion at $135 per share amid strong demand, reflecting Starlink revenue growth, launch cadence, and integration of AI capabilities that lifted implied enterprise value well above prior private rounds. xAI's elevated odds stem from its reported February all-stock combination into the SpaceX entity at a combined $1.25 trillion valuation, while Anthropic's October filing and $65 billion May round support its secondary position at a lower private mark near $1 trillion. Later-stage candidates such as OpenAI and Databricks show minimal implied probabilities given smaller reported valuations and delayed timelines relative to the year's benchmark event.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.