Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 28% for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 28%, September 30, 2026 3%, August 31, 2026 1%, July 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $341K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Sébastien Lecornu has served as French Prime Minister since his September 2025 appointment by President Emmanuel Macron and subsequent reappointment days later, navigating a fragmented National Assembly where his minority government depends on ad hoc support from centrist and socialist groups to survive repeated no-confidence motions. Key developments include the January 2026 use of Article 49.3 to advance the 2026 budget amid opposition challenges from La France Insoumise and National Rally, followed by parliamentary passage of the budget in early February after additional confidence votes failed. Ongoing factors include legislative deadlock risks, policy disputes over spending and international agreements, and historical patterns of short-lived governments in the current hung parliament. No major parliamentary tests or cabinet shifts have occurred in the months leading to mid-2026.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.