Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Traders currently price "26°C" at 100% for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: 26°C 100%, 27°C 0%, 22°C or below 0%, 23°C 0%. The market has traded $73K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Official Hong Kong Observatory readings established a 26°C daily minimum on August 14 under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies that restricted overnight radiative cooling, aligning with typical August South China Sea monsoon conditions and global ensemble model consensus around 26–27°C lows. This data-driven outcome produced overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability, reflecting the narrow historical range of urban minimums during the warm season. A realistic shift would require revised station data, unusual microclimate effects at the reference site, or redefinition of the measurement window, though such revisions remain unlikely once preliminary hourly values are finalized.

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