Lowest temperature in Paris on August 14?

This market has settled: "20°C or below" was the outcome, priced at 100% at close. Full distribution: 20°C or below 100%, 21°C 0%, 22°C 0%, 23°C 0%. The market has traded $13K in total volume and resolved Aug 14, 2026. Current forecasts from agencies like Météo-France and ensemble models indicate the overnight minimum in Paris will align with typical mid-August climatology of 15–18°C, driven by radiative cooling under mostly clear skies following the day's heat. This baseline, combined with moderate wind patterns and soil conditions, underpins the market's near-certain consensus on 20°C or below. The ongoing heatwave primarily elevates daytime maxima via warm-air advection but has limited impact on nocturnal lows absent persistent cloud cover or humidity spikes. A realistic challenge could arise from revised model runs showing stronger warm advection or urban heat island effects pushing the minimum above 20°C before resolution.

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