Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 95% for "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. The market has traded $134K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

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