Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 90% for "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?". The market has traded $179K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because major meteor strikes of 10kt or greater remain statistically rare events, with annual base rates far below 1% based on NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data. No known near-Earth objects currently show credible impact trajectories for 2026, and ongoing Sentry system scans plus recent observations of objects like 2024 YR4 have only refined distant risks without flagging near-term threats. Small asteroids continue to produce harmless close approaches, but none approach the energy threshold for market resolution. Key catalysts ahead include continued radar and optical surveys through year-end, which could further reduce uncertainty but are unlikely to alter the low-probability outlook absent an undetected large object.

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