Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Traders currently price "El-Sayed <5%" at 100% for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory". Full distribution: El-Sayed <5% 100%, Other 50%, El-Sayed 15–20% 0%, El-Sayed 5–10% 0%. The market has traded $212K in total volume and resolves Aug 4, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026, primary with 48.5% of the vote against Representative Haley Stevens at 47.5%, producing a sub-1% margin that aligns with the market's overwhelming consensus on a sub-5% outcome. The race featured heavy spending, including substantial outside support for Stevens, and positioned El-Sayed as the progressive alternative to the more moderate incumbent-backed candidate after state Senator Mallory McMorrow withdrew earlier in the cycle. Recent final vote tabulation and projections from major outlets have locked in the narrow result, leaving little room for other margin brackets. Certified results, any formal recounts, or legal challenges to ballot counting could still shift the precise margin if irregularities surface before resolution.

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