Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m sq km
- 28%
- −3.1
- 4.6-4.8m sq km
- 26%
- +8.8
- 4.2-4.4m sq km
- 25%
- −4.6
- <4m sq km
- 14%
- −1.5
- 4.0-4.2m sq km
- 8%
- −7.3
- 5m+ sq km
- 3%
- −1.8
- 4.8-5m sq km
- 1%
- −1.4
Traders currently price "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 28% for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.1 points. Full distribution: 4.4-4.6m sq km 28%, 4.6-4.8m sq km 26%, 4.2-4.4m sq km 25%, <4m sq km 14%. The market has traded $66K in total volume and resolves Oct 1, 2026. Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent near 14.3 million sq km, driven by persistent warmth in the Barents, Kara, and Labrador Seas, has set a thin starting point for the melt season. As of late July, Arctic-wide extent stood 14% below the 1991-2020 median at 6.62 million sq km, with early marginal ice retreat and model runs projecting a September minimum near 4.49 million sq km. Traders weigh these trends against variable summer weather patterns that could slow or accelerate melt through early September, when NSIDC daily observations typically confirm the annual low.
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