Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 3% for "Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.1 points. Full distribution: August 31 3%, July 17 0%, July 24 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $319K in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. **Mykhailo Fedorov served as Ukraine’s Defense Minister from January 2026 until his dismissal in mid-July during a cabinet reshuffle under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.** The move, which replaced him with acting minister Yevhenii Khmara, triggered sustained nationwide protests that have continued into August, with thousands rallying in Kyiv and other cities to demand his reinstatement. Fedorov has rejected alternative government roles, insisting only on returning to the Defense Ministry to advance military modernization and drone programs. Zelenskyy has not reversed the decision, leaving an acting minister in place ahead of the next parliamentary session scheduled for August 18. Ongoing street pressure and internal political dynamics remain the primary factors shaping trader assessments of reinstatement prospects.

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