New pandemic in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "New pandemic in 2026?". The market has traded $1.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trader consensus on a 93.5% implied probability of no new pandemic in 2026 reflects sustained low public health risk from monitored pathogens, with H5N1 avian influenza showing only sporadic human cases without efficient respiratory transmission and Bundibugyo Ebola outbreaks remaining geographically contained after a May 2026 PHEIC declaration. Official CDC and WHO surveillance data indicate limited clusters, such as Andes hantavirus on a cruise ship, without exponential growth exceeding baseline patterns or meeting pandemic criteria of widespread international transmission. Strengthened post-COVID systems, including wastewater monitoring and the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, support rapid detection. Realistic scenarios that could alter this include antigenic shifts enabling sustained human-to-human spread in influenza or coronaviruses, or undetected spillover from high-risk pathogens like Nipah before diagnostics scale.

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