Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 72% for "Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: September 30 72%, September 15 48%, August 31 25%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $108K in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Anthropic’s June 2026 launches of Claude Fable 5 (generally available with safeguards) and Claude Mythos 5 (restricted) established the Mythos tier above Opus as its frontier class, following the limited April preview under Project Glasswing for cybersecurity work. No subsequent Mythos-class releases have occurred as of mid-August 2026, leaving traders focused on Anthropic’s internal development cadence and the technical hurdles of scaling autonomous exploit capabilities while managing misuse risks. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and xAI model timelines could accelerate or delay the next iteration, with key catalysts including any official Anthropic announcements, API expansions, or regulatory scrutiny on high-capability AI. Market-implied odds reflect the uncertainty around whether Anthropic will lead the next release or if another lab will match the tier first.

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