Next Premier of Quebec

Traders currently price "Paul St-Pierre Plamondon" at 72% for "Next Premier of Quebec". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 4.5 points. Full distribution: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 72%, Christine Fréchette 13%, Charles Milliard 12%, Bernard Drainville 0%. The market has traded $242K in total volume and resolves Oct 5, 2026. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois leads trader pricing for Quebec’s next premier following consistent polling leads for his party ahead of the October 5, 2026 general election. Recent surveys show the PQ at roughly 30-31% support, ahead of the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec, with Plamondon rated highest among leaders as best suited for the role. François Legault’s January 2026 resignation and Christine Fréchette’s April CAQ leadership victory produced only a temporary bump for the governing party, which now polls near 20%. Charles Milliard’s Liberals sit close behind in some surveys but trail on leadership metrics. These voter intention trends and the fixed election timeline underpin the current implied probabilities across the field.

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