Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 76% for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. The market has traded $324K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Pete Hegseth remains in office as Secretary of Defense (now titled Secretary of War) as of mid-August 2026, actively managing Pentagon operations including budget requests for Iran-related contingencies and public addresses to troops.** Recent developments include Senate appropriations hearings in July where he defended substantial funding increases amid ongoing military engagements, alongside continued criticism from some Republican senators over officer firings and management style. Bipartisan concerns have surfaced regarding leadership decisions and service member protections, yet no formal removal process or presidential action has advanced. Traders appear to weigh these frictions against the absence of decisive political or institutional momentum for departure before year-end, producing the current implied probability that he will serve through December 31.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.