Quebec General Election Winner

Traders currently price "PQ" at 74% for "Quebec General Election Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: PQ 74%, PLQ 14%, CAQ 13%, QS 0%. The market has traded $757K in total volume and resolves Oct 5, 2026. Recent polling through early August 2026 shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in voting intentions, typically at 30-31 percent ahead of the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec, with particular strength among francophone voters. This positioning, combined with the first-past-the-post electoral system favoring concentrated regional support, underpins trader consensus around a PQ victory in the October 5 election. The CAQ’s sharp decline following François Legault’s departure and low single-digit to low-20s support has further consolidated the frontrunner status, while the PLQ remains competitive but trails in key projections. High undecided rates near 50 percent and limited movement in smaller parties keep implied probabilities from reaching certainty levels.

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