Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 13% for "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 8.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 13%, June 30 0%, May 15 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $354K in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. US authorities indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current or former state officials in late April 2026 on narcotics trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, simultaneously requesting extradition under the US-Mexico treaty. Mexican authorities, including the Attorney General’s Office and President Claudia Sheinbaum, responded that the US submission lacked sufficient evidence for provisional arrest or extradition warrants and announced plans to review the case while demanding additional proof. Rocha denied the allegations and took a temporary leave of absence, which state congress later formalized. As of mid-August 2026, Mexico continues to evaluate the request without executing arrest or transfer, leaving the outcome dependent on evidentiary exchanges, diplomatic negotiations, and any further US filings within treaty timelines.

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