São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Traders currently price "Tarcísio de Freitas" at 94% for "São Paulo Governor Election Winner". Full distribution: Tarcísio de Freitas 94%, Fernando Haddad 4%, Erika Hilton 1%, Kim Kataguiri 0%. The market has traded $279K in total volume and resolves Oct 4, 2026. Tarcísio de Freitas holds a dominant position in the São Paulo governor race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent polls, including Ideia/ACSP and Genial/Quaest surveys from July and August, show him leading Fernando Haddad of the PT by 15–18 points in first-round scenarios, with support in the 41–52% range. His decision to pursue another term as governor rather than a presidential bid, combined with consistent approval tied to state-level governance, has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% odds. Minor candidates such as Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register negligible support. A major scandal, health issue, or sharp shift in voter turnout could still narrow the gap before the first round.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.