South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
- Darline Graham Nordone
- 78%
- +3.5
- Person H
- 50%
- —
- Person I
- 50%
- —
- Person J
- 50%
- —
- Person K
- 50%
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- Person L
- 50%
- —
- Person M
- 50%
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- Person N
- 50%
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- Person O
- 50%
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- Person P
- 50%
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- Person Q
- 50%
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- Person R
- 50%
- —
- Person S
- 50%
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- Person T
- 50%
- —
- Person U
- 50%
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- Person V
- 50%
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- Person W
- 50%
- —
- Person X
- 50%
- —
- Person Y
- 50%
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- Person Z
- 50%
- —
- Person AA
- 50%
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- Person AB
- 50%
- —
- Person AC
- 50%
- —
- Person AD
- 50%
- —
- Person AE
- 50%
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- Person AF
- 50%
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- Person AG
- 50%
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- Person AH
- 50%
- —
- Person AI
- 50%
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- Person AJ
- 50%
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- Person AK
- 50%
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- Person AL
- 50%
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- Person AM
- 50%
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- Person AN
- 50%
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- Person AO
- 50%
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- Other
- 50%
- —
- Ralph Norman
- 23%
- −3.0
- Mark Sanford
- 0%
- —
- Russell Fry
- 0%
- —
- Nancy Mace
- 0%
- —
- Joe Wilson
- 0%
- —
- Mark Lynch
- 0%
- —
- Paul Dans
- 0%
- —
- William Timmons
- 0%
- —
- Sheri Biggs
- 0%
- —
- Pamela Evette
- 0%
- —
- André Bauer
- 0%
- —
- Alan Wilson
- 0%
- —
- Scott Bessent
- 0%
- —
- Trey Gowdy
- 0%
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Traders currently price "Darline Graham Nordone" at 78% for "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.5 points. Full distribution: Darline Graham Nordone 78%, Person H 50%, Person I 50%, Person J 50%. The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Aug 11, 2026. Darline Graham Nordone holds a strong lead in trader consensus for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary due to her appointment as interim senator following the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, combined with President Trump's endorsement and her first-place finish in the August 11 primary. This positions her ahead of Rep. Ralph Norman in the August 25 runoff, as voters weigh name recognition, continuity with the prior senator's record, and institutional support against Norman's congressional experience. Other declared candidates remain at minimal implied probabilities, reflecting limited polling traction or fundraising. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of these dynamics ahead of the runoff vote.
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