SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Traders currently price "September 30" at 94% for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.7 points. Full distribution: September 30 94%, October 31 93%, Super Heavy booster explodes? 81%, September 15 81%. The market has traded $61K in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. SpaceX completed a successful Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026, with V3 vehicles deploying initial Starlink V3 satellites and achieving the first intact heatshield recovery after an ocean landing. This momentum supports trader focus on Flight 14, which targets the first orbital Starlink V3 batch—offering roughly 10 times prior broadband capacity—plus a potential tower catch of the upper stage. Elon Musk stated on the August 4 earnings call that the attempt could occur by late August, contingent on FAA and FCC approvals, with preparations including Booster 21 testing. Regulatory timelines and V3 propulsion upgrades remain the main variables that could shift the schedule into September or alter catch objectives.

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