"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?

Traders currently price "900m+" at 61% for ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.2 points. Full distribution: 900m+ 61%, 800 - 900m 37%, 700 - 800m 0%, <400m 0%. The market has traded $868K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Strong opening weekend performance and sustained audience demand position the 900M+ domestic total as the market frontrunner with 61.6% implied probability. Released July 31, 2026, the film posted a record $360 million domestic debut—the second-highest ever—driven by Tom Holland’s star power, Destin Daniel Cretton’s direction, and summer blockbuster positioning. As of August 13 it has already reached roughly $691 million domestically while maintaining top chart placement and strong per-screen averages. Traders see the remaining 18 days through August 31 as sufficient for another $210 million-plus in earnings, consistent with historical legs for comparable Marvel entries. The 800-900M band at 37.5% reflects residual uncertainty around exact holdover pace, but lower brackets carry negligible probability given current momentum and lack of meaningful competition.

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