"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)

Traders currently price "<900m" at 88% for ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 23.5 points. Full distribution: <900m 88%, 900 - 920m 8%, 920 - 940m 2%, 1080m+ 1%. The market has traded $52K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. **Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic weekend but followed with a steep ~60% second-weekend drop, typical for summer tentpoles during the August lull. This trajectory has the film at roughly $716 million domestically after two weeks, with ongoing earnings unlikely to accelerate enough to approach the $900 million threshold by August 31. Trader consensus reflects standard superhero hold patterns, limited late-summer legs, and the absence of major positive catalysts such as exceptional word-of-mouth surges or IMAX reissues that could alter the curve. The next chart updates and weekend actuals remain the key swing factors before the market resolves.

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