Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 2% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?". The market has traded $19.5M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and vessel attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at multi-week lows, with daily counts of 3–8 ships versus pre-conflict averages above 100 and normal thresholds around a 60-vessel seven-day moving average. Shipowners continue avoiding the chokepoint due to elevated war-risk premiums, uncertain insurance coverage, and Iranian demands for concessions, sustaining pressure on global crude and LNG supply chains that route roughly 20% of seaborne oil trade through the strait. Brief traffic rebounds after the June 2026 interim agreement reversed sharply in July amid renewed strikes, pushing tanker rates higher and supporting elevated energy benchmarks. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals ahead of mid-August resolution windows and data releases on transit volumes from sources like Kpler or IMF PortWatch.

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