Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 55% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. The market has traded $7.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran tensions stemming from the February 2026 conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel counts recently dropping to six against a normal average exceeding 70 daily. Iran has conditioned full reopening on the removal of naval blockades, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and an end to regional attacks, demands unmet amid renewed threats and sporadic incidents including strikes on vessels. A June memorandum briefly lifted some restrictions but has faltered, with traders viewing sustained diplomatic impasse and military posturing as barriers to normalization by year-end. Any breakthrough in bilateral talks or verified de-escalation could shift odds toward resumption, while further escalation or prolonged enforcement of restrictions would reinforce the current slight edge for continued disruption.

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