Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Traders currently price "No" at 85% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?". The market has traded $3.2M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the absence of a comprehensive reopening agreement continue to suppress vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting traders’ 84.5% implied probability that traffic will not reach normal levels by September 30. Shipping data show daily transits recently falling to single digits—well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels—amid repeated attacks on commercial ships, U.S. naval enforcement actions, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Iran has conditioned any sustained reopening on sanctions relief and compensation, while U.S. officials maintain control claims without corresponding traffic recovery. Key near-term catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or additional maritime incidents that could either accelerate de-escalation or further deter shipowners.

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