Strava IPO Closing Market Cap
- 2B–3B
- 36%
- —
- 3B–4B
- 33%
- —
- 7B–10B
- 19%
- −3.6
- 4B–5B
- 10%
- —
- No IPO before 2028
- 7%
- —
- <2B
- 7%
- —
- 10B–15B
- 6%
- +1.1
- 5B–7B
- 5%
- —
- 15B+
- 5%
- −11.1
Traders currently price "2B–3B" at 36% for "Strava IPO Closing Market Cap". Full distribution: 2B–3B 36%, 3B–4B 33%, 7B–10B 19%, 4B–5B 10%. The market has traded $89K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. Strava's confidential IPO filing in January 2026, targeting a 2026 debut after a $2.2 billion private valuation in its 2025 round, anchors trader expectations around the 2–4 billion range that leads this market. Sustained user growth past 180 million, subscription revenue momentum nearing half a billion dollars annually, and fitness trends tied to running clubs and Gen Z adoption support modest premiums, while the company's 17-year history and recent API protections signal readiness without aggressive hype. The close split between 2–3B and 3–4B outcomes reflects uncertainty over final multiples, IPO timing amid 2026 market conditions, and any last-minute financial disclosures. Separation could emerge from public S-1 details, underwriter pricing guidance, or shifts in broader tech IPO sentiment that reward or temper growth projections.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.