TIME Person of the Year 2026
- Zohran Mamdani
- 34%
- +2.0
- Pope Leo XIV
- 17%
- −0.5
- Donald Trump
- 14%
- —
- Elon Musk
- 11%
- −1.0
- Jeremy Hansen
- 10%
- +0.5
- Victor Glover
- 9%
- +0.5
- Dario Amodei
- 8%
- −1.5
- Christina Koch
- 8%
- —
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- 8%
- −1.0
- Reid Wiseman
- 8%
- −0.5
- Taylor Swift
- 7%
- —
- Artificial Intelligence
- 7%
- −1.5
- Shehbaz Sharif
- 7%
- —
- Sam Altman
- 7%
- —
- Marco Rubio
- 6%
- —
- ChatGPT
- 6%
- −0.5
- James Talarico
- 6%
- —
- Péter Magyar
- 5%
- —
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
- 5%
- —
- Bad Bunny
- 5%
- —
- Jerome Powell
- 5%
- −0.5
- Alysa Liu
- 4%
- —
Traders currently price "Zohran Mamdani" at 34% for "TIME Person of the Year 2026". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: Zohran Mamdani 34%, Pope Leo XIV 17%, Donald Trump 14%, Elon Musk 11%. The market has traded $13K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Zohran Mamdani currently leads trader sentiment for TIME's 2026 Person of the Year, reflecting his elevated profile as New York City mayor and recent momentum in prediction markets where his implied probability sits near 30%. Market pricing shows Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump as the next most discussed contenders, with traders weighing papal influence and ongoing political centrality against Mamdani's local-to-national visibility. The April release of the 2026 TIME100 list highlighted cultural and leadership figures but has not yet produced a clear frontrunner narrative. With the official announcement still months away in December, late-year news cycles, major policy developments, or unexpected global events could shift the consensus before editors finalize their choice.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.