Trump out as President by August 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 100% for "Trump out as President by August 31?". The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. President Donald Trump remains actively engaged in his second term as of mid-August 2026, issuing executive orders and conducting public events without reported health concerns or institutional challenges. Republican congressional majorities and the absence of active impeachment proceedings or 25th Amendment discussions create substantial barriers to removal within the narrow 18-day window. Trader consensus at 99.6% reflects these structural and temporal realities, consistent with historical patterns where presidential exits outside elections require prolonged processes or acute crises. Even so, an unforeseen medical event or rapid escalation in external pressures could theoretically alter the outcome before August 31, though no such indicators have surfaced recently.

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