Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Traders currently price "No" at 60% for "Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. The market has traded $277K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder and related charges in the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.** Prosecutors presented DNA evidence linking him to the weapon, surveillance footage placing him on campus, and statements described as confessions during a multi-day preliminary hearing that concluded in July 2026. The judge has kept the death penalty available after contempt findings against prosecutors for media comments and has admitted certain video evidence while shielding portions from public view. No trial date is set, Robinson has not entered a plea, and defense counsel continues to contest aspects of the evidence, the political-motivation enhancement, and death-penalty eligibility. These unresolved procedural and evidentiary disputes, combined with the high bar for conviction in a capital case, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 60% implied probability on a “No” outcome.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.