UK election called by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 34% for "UK election called by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 34%, December 31, 2026 17%, March 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $820K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. The UK prime minister retains full discretion under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act to request an early general election at any time before the automatic dissolution of the current Parliament in July 2029. Labour’s weak polling position, hovering around 22 percent in recent surveys, combined with Reform UK’s rising support, creates the main incentive structure for or against a snap vote. The May 2026 local, Scottish Parliament, and Senedd elections delivered mixed results that highlighted shifting voter preferences but did not trigger immediate dissolution. Traders therefore focus on whether economic data, by-election outcomes, or internal party pressure will prompt Starmer to move before the fixed five-year term expires.

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