US charges Hormuz fees by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 7% for "US charges Hormuz fees by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 7%, August 31 1%, July 17 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $960K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US policy toward fees or tolls in the Strait of Hormuz remains shaped by ongoing US-Iran tensions, naval blockades, and post-ceasefire negotiations involving Oman and Gulf states. President Trump’s mid-July 2026 proposal for the US to assume guardianship and collect 20 percent reimbursement on cargo was swiftly reversed in favor of investment and trade deals with regional partners, reflecting opposition to precedents that could restrict freedom of navigation. Iran continues efforts to route traffic through its waters and impose service fees or insurance requirements, prompting US sanctions on related entities and repeated diplomatic rejections of mandatory charges. Trader sentiment tracks these diplomatic signals, sanctions enforcement, and any shifts in blockade status or Oman-mediated arrangements that could alter whether Washington itself moves to levy fees within the market’s resolution window.

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