US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 22% for "US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.5 points. The market has traded $210K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent revocation of the June 2026 General License X waiver—originally authorizing Iranian oil production, sales, and deliveries through August 21 amid interim U.S.-Iran talks—has returned full sanctions after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz prompted an immediate wind-down by July 17. This reversal tightened global supply expectations and supported higher crude benchmarks, with traders monitoring any resumption of negotiations or oil-price spikes that could prompt reissuance to ease energy-market pressures. Iranian export volumes remain constrained by enforcement actions, while broader sanctions on shadow-fleet networks continue to limit revenue flows. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming diplomatic signals, OPEC+ output decisions, and any Treasury updates on waivers tied to Hormuz stability or bilateral agreements.

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