US x Cuba economic deal by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 26% for "US x Cuba economic deal by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 26%, July 31 0%, April 30 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $432K in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. US sanctions policy toward Cuba has intensified sharply in 2026 through Executive Orders 14380 and 14404, which established new authorities for blocking sanctions on energy, financial, and other sectors while authorizing secondary measures against foreign entities facilitating oil supplies. A fuel blockade implemented after the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments has contributed to widespread shortages, blackouts, and economic strain on the island. Multiple designations of Cuban state entities, including in tourism and energy, occurred in June, July, and August, with the administration continuing to cite national security concerns. Cuban officials have reported stalled talks and implemented limited domestic market reforms to attract private investment, but no bilateral economic agreement has advanced. These developments shape trader assessments of timelines for any potential deal.

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