What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $770
- 100%
- +42.4
- ↑ $760
- 100%
- +24.4
- ↑ $750
- 100%
- +17.4
- ↑ $740
- 100%
- +0.5
- ↑ $780
- 89%
- −5.0
- ↑ $790
- 45%
- −11.8
- ↑ $800
- 18%
- −3.9
- ↓ $730
- 10%
- +0.5
- ↓ $720
- 5%
- −1.5
- ↓ $700
- 3%
- —
- ↓ $690
- 3%
- —
- ↓ $710
- 2%
- —
- ↓ $670
- 1%
- —
- ↓ $680
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "↑ $770" at 100% for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 42.4 points. Full distribution: ↑ $770 100%, ↑ $760 100%, ↑ $750 100%, ↑ $740 100%. The market has traded $92K in total volume and resolves Sep 1, 2026. Recent all-time highs near 7,800 for the S&P 500 reflect resilient corporate earnings growth projected above 20% for 2026, combined with softer July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. These figures have reduced near-term rate-hike odds at the September FOMC meeting, where the federal funds rate stands at 3.50%-3.75%. Elevated Treasury yields and Middle East energy supply risks continue to influence volatility, while strong trading volumes and analyst estimate upgrades support current levels. Traders are monitoring the upcoming August CPI release and any shifts in labor market data for signals on monetary policy direction through year-end.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.