What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80
- 100%
- +27.5
- ↓ $85
- 100%
- +9.3
- ↓ $75
- 100%
- +28.0
- ↑ $80
- 100%
- —
- ↑ $80
- 100%
- +23.9
- ↓ $75
- 100%
- —
- ↑ $85
- 59%
- −21.0
- ↓ $75
- 51%
- +9.5
- ↑ $90
- 31%
- −10.0
- ↓ $70
- 20%
- −0.5
- ↑ $95
- 16%
- −8.0
- ↑ $100
- 9%
- −4.0
- ↓ $65
- 6%
- −1.0
- ↑ $105
- 4%
- −2.9
- ↑ $110
- 3%
- −1.8
- ↓ $60
- 1%
- —
- ↑ $115
- 1%
- −0.9
- ↑ $120
- 1%
- —
- ↑ $130
- 1%
- —
- ↑ $140
- 1%
- —
- ↓ $55
- 1%
- —
- ↑ $150
- 1%
- —
- ↓ $50
- 1%
- —
- ↓ $40
- 0%
- —
- ↓ $30
- 0%
- —
- ↓ $20
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "↓ $80" at 100% for "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 27.5 points. Full distribution: ↓ $80 100%, ↓ $85 100%, ↓ $75 100%, ↑ $80 100%. The market has traded $5.8M in total volume and resolves Sep 1, 2026. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly ongoing disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipments amid the US-Iran conflict, remain the dominant driver supporting WTI crude prices in the low-to-mid $80s per barrel as of mid-August 2026. Tight near-term supply has kept US commercial inventories below five-year averages, reinforced by strong refinery runs and export demand, while the EIA projects Brent averaging near $85 per barrel in Q3 before easing toward $69 in 2027 as production recovers. Traders are watching diplomatic talks on Hormuz reopening, OPEC+ output decisions, and softening Asian demand for potential catalysts that could shift the price path before month-end resolution. Market-implied odds on Polymarket reflect this supply-constrained backdrop, with real capital at risk underscoring the uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation.
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