Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
- Ariana Grande
- 100%
- +1.9
- Bad Bunny
- 100%
- +1.1
- Drake
- 100%
- —
- Harry Styles
- 100%
- +5.9
- Olivia Rodrigo
- 100%
- +34.3
- Morgan Wallen
- 61%
- +2.5
- Mariah Carey
- 58%
- −20.0
- SZA
- 50%
- —
- Post Malone
- 50%
- +0.5
- Lil Baby
- 49%
- +1.3
- Sabrina Carpenter
- 48%
- +2.5
- Peso Pluma
- 45%
- +0.5
- Kendrick Lamar
- 35%
- −13.0
- The Weeknd
- 29%
- +0.5
- Billie Eilish
- 27%
- +7.0
- Playboi Carti
- 23%
- −6.0
- Rihanna
- 20%
- —
- Jack Harlow
- 18%
- +2.5
- Luke Combs
- 18%
- −1.5
- Doja Cat
- 16%
- +4.3
- Tyler, The Creator
- 15%
- —
- Travis Scott
- 14%
- +0.5
- Future
- 13%
- +1.1
- Zach Bryan
- 12%
- —
- Frank Ocean
- 11%
- −1.4
- Ed Sheeran
- 7%
- —
- A$AP Rocky
- 5%
- −1.4
- Kanye West
- 3%
- —
Traders currently price "Ariana Grande" at 100% for "Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.9 points. Full distribution: Ariana Grande 100%, Bad Bunny 100%, Drake 100%, Harry Styles 100%. The market has traded $163K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" has anchored the 2026 Billboard Hot 100 with a record 17 non-consecutive weeks at number one through mid-August, marking her debut chart-topper and underscoring country music's strong streaming and radio pull. Established stars have followed with shorter runs, including Taylor Swift's "I Knew It, I Knew You," multiple Bruno Mars entries, Drake tracks, and recent Ariana Grande singles like "Hate That I Made You Love Me" and "Petal." With five months left, late-summer and fall album drops from artists such as Karol G, Stray Kids, and others, plus potential holiday surges, will determine additional toppers amid fluctuating competition from pop, hip-hop, and global releases.
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