Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Traders currently price "GlobalFoundries" at 87% for "Which companies will the US take a stake in?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.6 points. Full distribution: GlobalFoundries 87%, D-Wave 79%, Rigetti 72%, Lockheed Martin 49%. The market has traded $169K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Trump administration’s second-term industrial policy has accelerated direct equity stakes in strategic firms, primarily through Commerce Department CHIPS R&D awards that now routinely condition funding on minority, non-controlling ownership positions. Since early 2025 this approach has produced roughly 37 announced deals totaling over $27 billion across semiconductors, critical minerals, and defense-adjacent technologies, converting prior grant commitments (such as Intel’s roughly 10 percent stake) into equity while adding new recipients in batches. A July 2026 Commerce announcement of letters of intent covering six additional companies, including GlobalFoundries’ quantum foundry project, directly supports elevated market prices for that firm and related quantum and semiconductor names. Additional drivers include ongoing supply-chain initiatives at Defense and Energy departments and the absence of statutory limits on the equity tool, keeping further announcements possible through year-end 2026.

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