Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

Traders currently price "US" at 10% for "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.0 points. Full distribution: US 10%, UK 3%, Netherlands 3%, Italy 2%. The market has traded $217K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Escalating U.S.-Iran naval tensions and renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive energy-market volatility, with tanker insurance premiums and freight rates spiking amid the reimposed U.S. blockade and ongoing strikes as of early August 2026. The waterway handles roughly 20-30% of global seaborne crude, making any sustained closure a direct upside catalyst for Brent and WTI futures while pressuring downstream refining margins and inflation expectations. Recent developments, including the breakdown of the June U.S.-Iran memorandum and UAE tanker incidents, have heightened focus on potential allied naval participation to secure transit lanes, echoing earlier Trump calls for burden-sharing from the UK, France, and others. With the August 31 resolution window approaching, traders are monitoring FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment, Treasury yield movements, and any fresh CENTCOM deployments or diplomatic signals that could shift implied probabilities around which nations commit assets.

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