Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Traders currently price "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 55% for "Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 55%, December 14%, September 10%, October 10%. The market has traded $278K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Persistent US-Iran tensions and renewed naval blockades since July 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 13% of normal levels, with war-risk insurance costs and Iranian routing demands suppressing commercial flows. Traders price a 54.5% implied probability of no return to normal traffic by year-end, reflecting slow mine-clearance timelines, fragile ceasefires, and stalled Oman corridor talks that have yet to restore pre-February volumes. Modest December odds at 14% incorporate potential late-year diplomatic breakthroughs, while lower probabilities for September through November align with seasonal insurance renewals and unresolved security risks that continue to elevate effective shipping costs.

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