Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
- Toy Story 5
- 89%
- —
- Movie B
- 50%
- —
- Movie C
- 50%
- —
- Movie D
- 50%
- —
- Movie E
- 50%
- —
- Movie F
- 50%
- —
- Movie G
- 50%
- —
- Movie H
- 50%
- —
- Movie I
- 50%
- —
- Movie J
- 50%
- —
- Movie K
- 50%
- —
- Movie L
- 50%
- —
- Movie M
- 50%
- —
- Movie N
- 50%
- —
- Movie O
- 50%
- —
- Other
- 50%
- —
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
- 5%
- —
- Avengers: Doomsday
- 3%
- +0.5
- Dune: Messiah
- 3%
- —
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day
- 3%
- —
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
- 0%
- —
- The Odyssey
- 0%
- −1.7
Traders currently price "Toy Story 5" at 89% for "Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?". Full distribution: Toy Story 5 89%, Movie B 50%, Movie C 50%, Movie D 50%. The market has traded $15K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Toy Story 5's established June 2026 domestic opening near $160 million anchors trader sentiment for the third-biggest weekend of the year, reflecting its franchise-record start, top animated performance to date, and strong family audience draw amid limited early competition. Later 2026 tentpoles such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie face uncertain positioning due to release timing, potential audience fatigue, and direct calendar clashes that historically cap openings. Market-implied odds emphasize Toy Story 5's locked-in momentum while assigning minimal probability to unproven December or November releases, underscoring how actual box-office data and release strategies shape current consensus ahead of remaining high-profile launches.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.