Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Traders currently price "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 70% for "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: Spider-Man: Brand New Day 70%, Avengers: Doomsday 28%, Dune: Messiah 0%, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 0%. The market has traded $2.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million domestic opening in late July 2026 anchors the market's strong consensus, shattering Avengers: Endgame's prior benchmark and establishing it as the clear leader for the year's biggest debut. Strong word-of-mouth, IMAX demand, and franchise momentum have driven this outcome, with global totals already exceeding $900 million in the first weekend. Avengers: Doomsday holds meaningful support through explosive presales and its December 18 holiday slot, though projections cluster in the $230-260 million domestic range and face a shorter window to build. Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain marginal due to later tracking and direct competition from these tentpoles.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.