Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Traders currently price "Tom Begich" at 98% for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?". Full distribution: Tom Begich 98%, Bernadette Wilson 94%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 79%, Dave Bronson 54%. The market has traded $243K in total volume and resolves Aug 18, 2026. The Alaska gubernatorial primary on August 18 operates as a nonpartisan top-four contest, with the four highest vote-getters advancing to the November general election under ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, opening the race to a crowded field of 17 candidates that includes multiple Republicans such as former state Sen. Click Bishop, ex-Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum alongside Democrats former state Sen. Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins plus independents like former Gov. Bill Walker. Recent polls show Begich holding a modest lead in the low-to-mid 20s percent range while the next tier of contenders clusters in the low teens, reflecting fragmented support and limited name recognition across the field. A late-July candidate forum and ongoing ballot access finalization have shaped visibility, with turnout patterns and last-minute consolidation among similar candidates likely to determine the final four advancers.

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